Picks

It’s Week 7 in the NFL and the identities of teams are becoming more apparent, even if they haven’t been completely reflected in win-loss records yet.

Knowing which teams pass and/or run well, and which ones are better or worse at defending those things, can sometimes make betting on player props more appealing than other betting options. 

Prince’s Props is where I’ll pick six props each week, three overs and three unders, that stand out based on what we know of each matchup and have decent enough odds to make them worth the risk. Let’s get into this week’s picks.

Chuba Hubbard (Panthers) O 74.5 rushing yards (-116) at Giants

In three games the Carolina Panthers have played without Christian McCaffrey, Hubbard has only eclipsed 74 rushing yards once, a 101-yard effort against the Eagles two weeks ago. But the other two games were higher-scoring matchups that forced Sam Darnold to pass 39 and 41 times, respectively. 

The Giants pose no such scoring threat to Carolina’s defense. This should allow the Panthers to commit to the run more, something head coach Matt Rhule said Monday he intends to do. The Giants allow 137.2 rushing yards per game, 29th in the NFL.

Derek Carr (Raiders) U 287.5 passing yards (-114) vs. Eagles

The danger in this pick is that the Raiders can’t run the ball, averaging a league-worst 3.3 yards per carry and a bottom-three average in rushing yards per game, so they do most of their damage through the air. The Eagles, however, don’t have such a potent offense that the Raiders will completely need to abandon the run.

Carr has passed for fewer than 300 yards just twice this season, but both came within the last three weeks against top-10 defenses in terms of opponent passing yards allowed. He threw for 196 against the Chargers and 206 against the Bears. The Eagles’ defense ranks fifth in that category.

Joe Burrow (Bengals) O 260.5 passing yards (-114) at Ravens

Lamar Jackson is beginning to play at an MVP level again for the Ravens, which is why I expect Baltimore to find ways to score points against the Bengals, no matter how good their defense has been this season. Not a great rushing team to begin with, I think Cincinnati will have to air it out to have a chance at winning and leapfrogging the Ravens in the AFC North standings.

Burrow has eclipsed 260 passing yards in four of six games this season, including his last three. The Ravens have allowed more than that three times this year, in close games against the Raiders, Chiefs and Colts, where they gave up at least 340 yards each game.

Justin Fields (Bears) U 213.5 passing yards (-114) at Buccaneers

Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields (1) runs the ball against the Cincinnati Bengals during an NFL football game Sunday, Sept. 19, 2021, in Chicago. The Bears won 20-17. (Jeff Haynes/AP Images for Panini)

To ask for Justin Fields to throw for over 200 yards in this game would be asking him to do something he’s done once in his career, and just barely, when he tossed for 206 yards in a Week 4 win over the Lions. That’s a lot to put on a rookie, even if he is going against a banged-up Bucs secondary. Tampa still has the fifth-most interceptions in the NFL.

I think it’s more likely the Bears keep things on the ground — with Fields and backup running back Khalil Herbert — as much as possible to avoid turnovers and try to win this thing old-fashioned and ugly.

Darrell Henderson Jr. (Rams) O 82.5 rushing yards (-114) vs. Lions

The Lions don’t do much well on defense, and their offense will have its hands full with a stout Rams defense. I could see the Rams pulling away early in this one and leaning on Henderson to eat clock the second half of the game. He’s rushed for 78, 82 and 89 yards, respectively, his last three games. I think he has a chance for his first 100-yard game of the season Sunday.

DK Metcalf (Seahawks) U 61.5 receiving yards (-114) vs. Saints

Metcalf saw a respectable seven targets in Seattle’s overtime loss to the Steelers last Sunday, but they only resulted in 58 yards on six receptions. The 9.7 average was his second-lowest of the season. As long as Geno Smith is throwing him the ball, that will likely be par for the course. I don’t expect much more than that from Metcalf, who will likely be matched up against Marshon Lattimore, on a defense with the second-lowest opponent passer rating in the NFL.

Source : https://ftw.usatoday.com/lists/princes-props-joe-burrow-dk-metcalf-and-more-nfl-week-7-prop-bet-picks

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